Jio-poly and India's Gilded Age

Non-linear web Notebook to explore India's Gilded Age and Jio Platforms

James Crabtree

NirantK14th June 2020 at 8:40am

References:
Brain Dump

The Role of Civil War which led to ZIRP

Jio Things

Mukesh angle

  • Telecom has been close to Mukesh and Manoj Modi for more than a decade
  • Naked Populism - Jio's Free Pricing, Kar Lo Duniya Mutthi Mai
  • First plans of Jio leaked in 2015
  • "It has to work perfectly from Day 1" - paraphrasing Mukesh Ambani
  • "Country is on a journey from $2K to $5K PCI" - Mukesh Ambani

Cronyism?

  • Acquiring Infotel Broadband which bid for $2B, a proxy, when it had itself no existence or value
  • Change in TRAI rules which allowed Jio to make and receive voice calls on a network originally designed for data. Source 39 in the James Crabtree book.
  • "We de-merged all of that" - Mukesh Ambani when NYT spoke of "network of lobbyists and spies in New Delhi". Anil Ambani would later unsuccessfully sue Mukesh for defamation on the basis of this quote.

Oil Tycoon

  • Free cash flow from Oil Refining feeds to Telecom
  • Jamnagar Refinery - the world's largest refinery by X
  • Ignored advisors forcing him to become Exxon or Shell

Family History

  • How Kokilaben and Anil's focus on existing value over future value helped Mukesh, he got energy and oil. While Anil got Telecom.

Adani

  • VISC Coal mines in Australia and Indonesia, his own ports and railways to supply Adani Power/Electricity
  • Defended Modi publicly in 2002, against riot criticism
  • Criticized by media during 2014, when Adani's private jets were used by Modi for his political campaigns
  • Mundra Port is India's largest port with 100M MT of goods
  • Adani is India's largest port owner, and largest private Electricity producer

Further Reading: Guha Thakurta - Gas Wars: Crony Capitalism and the Ambanis

Creative Destruction

Bollygarchs Hindu rate of growth lol

How we move value

Roman aqueducts and stoned roads led to the Roman empire and coinage built economy

This Army, quite literally, borrowed from the future and paid it's debts – until it could not, losing to superior training, and better fighting tactics

Shipping, Rails, Roads, Pipes, Wires, Wireless

Grains, Spices, Armies, Oil, Currency, Favours

The Billionaire Raj
  1. Author: James Crabtree
  2. Amazon India: https://amzn.to/2Y2UMJj

The book chronicles the India from 1990s to 2018, from the eyes and ears of James Crabtree. He's now an academic at NUS, Singapore. He was journalist for a couple of years around 2016 in India. He has interviewed folks ranging from Adani to Jindal. Each interview typecasts into what author thinks businessmen should look like: professional hair cuts, tall and lanky and then contrasts them.

For instance, in addition to describing Vijay Mallya's gold covered bathroom in London - it might be useful to know about him more than the caricature of "public buccaneer, privately religious devout".

Deserving of India's penchant for cricket, there is an entire chapter on IPL. He presents a crisp entertaining thesis about Srini of BCCI/ICC and Lalit Modi's across multiple IPL scandals.

He spends a lot of words talking about crony capitalism, but shies away from doing any of his own primary research. In terms of specific figures or numbers, he does quote luminaries like Raghuram Rajan, which help a bit.

Also, errata: he mentions Raghuram Rajan and Jayant Sinha were friends at IIT Kharagpur. They are both IIT Delhi alumni.

The chapter on how this hurts the taxpayer funded public sector banks, which now have a ton of bad non performing assets on their books is quite amazing. Now, that I'm reading it 2 years later, it feels quite prophetic.

The author explains the mechanism by which money changes hands in India, from industrialists to politicians and bureaucrats and then back. He's clearly writing in a post-Modi world, and explains in excruciating detail how Modified India is.

The book is held together by a narrative of Schumpeter's

Creative Destruction

Creative destruction (German: schöpferische Zerstörung), sometimes known as Schumpeter's gale, is a concept in economics which since the 1950s has become most readily identified with the Austrian-born economist Joseph Schumpeter who derived it from the work of Karl Marx and popularized it as a theory of economic innovation and the business cycle.

Schumpeter was no idiot. He was Austria's Finance Minister and later a banker. He made and lost a fortune in the latter gig. I believe losing money can be a great teacher.

Concepts

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Creative_destruction

, and India's understated Income Inequality.

The job which the author does really well is to make an unemotional, yet storied case for why India is entering the Billionaire Raj.

He concludes on a hopeful note by sharing how America evolved beyond that phase into the Progressive Era. It does very little to calm your, now frayed nerves though.

Snippets